DETAILED INTRO to ANPOP 2&3 (Last Rev = Dec. 2013) INTRODUCTION TO THE ANPOP PROGRAM. 1A) WHAT IS THE ANPOP SOFTWARE. The ANPOP Software is a computer program for simulating ANimal POPulation growth, especially livestock, starting with the number of animals in the original population. ANPOP can be used for a wide variety of animal projects, such as livestock farming, extension and research, or pet projects, or other animal population studies and research including wild-life. After you enter values for 12 key variables that will affect the population, ANPOP can tell you the following for each year up to 20 years. 1. Number of females you will have each year; 2. number of males; 3. total number of animals (the animal population); 4. number of females that can reproduce and give milk; 5. total number of animals available for slaughtering and culling, if that will be done; 6. number of old animals past their productive life-span that can also be slaughtered; 7. age distribution of males and females. If cash-flow analysis is to be done, you can enter the major input coefficients and input prices, and the output coefficients and prices expected during the forecasting period. ANPOP will then tell you for each year up to 20 years; 8. amounts and costs of up to 10 variable input; 9. fixed cost; 10. total cost and accumulated cost; 11. number or total weight of animals available for culling, (not old animals), if that is to be done; 12. amount of meat from animals to be slaughtered, and, or milk that can be produced; 13. total and accumulated revenue; 14. total and accumulated gross margin and profit each year. 1B) Using A Target With ANPOP. If you have a population target or an output or input target for a certain year, ANPOP can also forecast inputs and outputs, costs and revenues required to achieve that target. 1C) ANPOP Versions. The ANPOP Software is available in 4 versions. 1st version = ANPOP2-SinglePROJ1-v10yrs can forecast for a SINGLE ANPOP PROJECT (or a Production Unit or a Research Project, etc.) for up to 10 years. It is most suitable for animals that have a productive life-span up to 10 years, such as most farm animals. 2nd version = ANPOP2-SP2-v20yrs can forecast for up to 20 years and is most suitable for animals that have an average life-span of up to 20 years. 3rd version = ANPOP3-MultiPROJ1-v10yrs is an upgrade of ANPOP2 that can forecast for a ANPOP Multi-Project, meaning a Typical ANPOP Project, and up to 100 similar projects established in different years up to 10 years. Most suitable for projects where the typical animals will be in the population unit for 10 years or less, for example most livestock on farms. 4th version = ANPOP3-MP2-v20yrs is similar to v10yrs but can forecast for up to 20 years. A sample forecast of ANPOP3 is given at the end of this chapter to show the prompts and options, also entries and results. All versions of ANPOP can save a file with the entire run of the software including its prompts, the options you choose, your entries, and its results. That file you can print-out or edit and use in whatever way you want. Such a sample file is also available with this program. If you choose, ANPOP can also print-out only your entries and results, to include directly in a report or anyway you want to use it. 1D) Hardware Required and Operating System. The ANPOP program can be used on any PC using MS-Windows or compatible Operating System. ANPOP Programs.* The ANPOP Programs are copy-protected and so you cannot make copies of the program. When you purchase any program, you will also another copy and its registration info, so that you can keep as a backup copy if the original becomes defective, or to use on another computer. Refer to the License Agreement for more details. 1E) WHO CAN USE ANPOP AND HOW The ANPOP Programs can be used for many kinds of animal projects, for example livestock farming, extension and research, or pet projects. They can also be used for animal population studies and research such as wild-life. (1E.1) FOR FARM PLANNING. ANPOP can be used by farm managers, agricultural economists and livestock specialists, as well as consultants and students who want to know how a certain herd can develop over time. From the female stock and sufficient males to breed them (or by artificial insemination), ANPOP can simulate the herd-buildup given the average values of key variables like mortality rate expected in the plan period for the breed of livestock. You can use ANPOP to forecast the number of females and males of different ages each year. It will also forecast reproducing animals available for milking, animals for slaughtering, and culling for other purposes. If you include the most important variable input coefficients you plan to use (e.g. area required per animal or feed per animal) and the prices of these inputs, ANPOP will compute the expected amounts and cost of each input, total cost and accumulated cost of the enterprise annually up to 20 years. Similarly, the software can be used with the output coefficients (e.g. weight per animal, milk per reproducing female,) and with output prices to calculate the amount and value of each product, and the total returns from the operation. You will be able to project several farm models accurately and quickly with this program. -------------------------- If you have a population target, or a variable input constraint for a certain year, ANPOP will compute the Original Parent Population to begin with, as well as resulting ANPOP, and annual input and output values that will realize your target. By comparing the inputs and outputs, costs and returns, the planner can determine the possibility of inputs and market being available, and the profitability of the operation. The farm plan may then be expanded or will have to be scaled down. ANPOP can also be used along similar lines to determine the potential impact of different values of the key variables which are determined by the breed of animals and the level of management and efficiency on the farm. You can forecast for larger numbers of animals much more accurately and quickly than by the laborious use of herd-development tables. --------------------------- (1E.2) USING ANPOP FOR PET PROJECTS. The ANPOP Programs can be used to forecast any pet project. Like livestock farming, the user will enter the necessary variables for his or her project and ANPOP will give results for up to 10 years in the case of most pets. The longer the productive life-span of the animal, the longer ANPOP can forecast for as much as 10 to 20 years. (1E.3) LIVESTOCK INDUSTRIES AND SECTOR PLANNING. The ANPOP PROGRAM can be used by agricultural planners to forecast the growth of each industry (or sub-sector) such as cattle, pigs or goats in a certain geographic area. The data from the areas such as districts, may be aggregated to estimate populations, outputs and inputs, costs and revenues for each industry in regions and finally for the country. The use of the software would be along similar lines to farm planning except that the values assigned to the key variables would have to be averages for the breeds in that district. You should also be aware that the larger the population, and the longer the forecasting period, the more memory is used to run the program. More on that later. 1E.4) FOR POPULATION STUDIES OF OTHER ANIMALS. ANPOP can be used by researchers and students in the life sciences to simulate population growth for animals other than livestock from birth to the end of their reproductive lives. This applies even if the animals are kept in the population till death from old age. ------------------------ For animals in the population beyond this period ('old animals'), the software gives their numbers each year. Remember that the program can give the age distribution of the population in each model. Therefore the number of animals that reach the end of their productive lives each year can be recorded and carried forward. The total would then be the sum of 'productive' and `non-productive animals' for their average productive life-span. You can use steps similar to those outlined for farm planning, to predict the natural, social and, or economic effects according to the expected values of the key parameters like input and output coefficients, and prices during the period for which you are forecasting. 1F) SUMMARY OF KEY VARIABLES AND ASSUMPTIONS Population growth is determined by many factors. ANPOP uses the variables considered most important and having direct effects on the population. The names of these parameters and their ranges are given in [ ] brackets. 1F1) Entries Used To Forecast Animal Population Growth. 1. Average Number of OFfsprings produced per female at each birth ; [ NOF = 1 to 20] 2. average LeNgTh of a reproductive Interval (the time from one birth to the next; [ I-LNT = 1 to 30 months]. 3. average LeNgTh of Pregnancy; [ P-LNT = 1 mth. to < Ivl-LNT ]. 4. Length of Forecasting Period (Last Interval or Last Year) during which the population grows; [ LIVL = 4 to 20, or LYR = 3 to 20] 5. average length of the Productive Life-Span of the population; [ PLS = 2 to 10] 6. average length of the Reproductive Life-Span of females; [ RLS 2 to 0% to <100% with one rate for the entire period, or a part of the time and another rate for the remainder]. 8. average MorTality Rates (a fraction) assuming 50% probability for death of males and females; [ MTR >0% to < 100% with one rate for young and the other for mature animals]. 9. Slaughter AGE if animals will be produced for slaughtering [ SLTR.AGE 1 to < LIVL ]. 10. Female Slaughter Rates; [ FSR 0 to 80% ] 11. Male Slaughter Rates; [ MSR 0 to 90% ] 12. Culling AGE if animals will be culled for any purpose other than for slaughtering and because of old age; [ CULL AGE 1 to < LIVL ]. 13. Female Culling Rate(s); [ FCR 0 to 80% ] 14. Male Culling Rate(s); [ MCR 0 to 90% ] 16. Number and age of Females in the Original Population; [ OFP TOTAL 1 to 100 ] 17. Number and age of Males in the Original Population (or availability of artificial insemination); [ OMP 0 to 100 ] If you enter a POPulation target or a Variable INPUT constraint you will not be able to enter the Number of Females and Males in the Original Population. You can enter their ratios, and then ANPOP will compute the OFP and O-M-P. Other factors are considered to have indirect effects on the population since they work through the parameters of the ANPOP model. For example, nutrition level would affect mortality rates, length of productive life and reproductive life. Similarly, population density could affect the population growth by working through nutrition and health levels. Also population density can be entered as 'carrying capacity' on land which is a production input. 1F2) Entries For Inputs, Outputs and Cash Flow. The rest of the ANPOP Program is optional if you are not interested in the economic aspects of the population growth. But if cash-flow analysis is to be done, you have to enter data for some or all of the following parameters. 18. Number of Variable InPuTs or factors of production; [ V.IPT 1-10 ] 19. Variable InPuT COEFficient(s), the amount of each input per animal per interval or per year for the entire forecasting period or a part of it; [ V.IPT COEF = 0.1 to 2000 ] 20. Variable InPuT PRICE (cost per unit of input); [ V.IPT PRICE = 0.10 to 2000] 21. avg. annual Input Price Change which can be negative or positive; [ IPC -100 to 100] 22. FiXed COST (cost per unit / year); [ FX. COST = 1 to 100000 ] 23. OUTPUT COEFficients ( average milk production per animal / yr., live weight or meat / animal, and number or weight of animals to be culled; [ OUTPUT COEF. 0-2000] 24. average Percentage Output Change for part or during all of the forecasting period; [ POC -100 to 100 % ]. 25. OUTPUT PRICEs; [ OPT PRICE 0.10 to 2000]. 26. average OutPut Price Change for part or during the entire forecasting period; [ OPC -100 to 100 % ]. 1G) HOW TO RUN THE FIRST TRIAL. (**Refer to the file with the Sample Forecast for more details.) Throughout the manual, for convenience we will put 'Enter' before the activity although as you know the ENTER or RETURN key is used after typing the required information. 1) TURN ON THE CAPS LOCK BECAUSE YOU MUST RESPOND TO THE PROMPTS WITH CAPITAL LETTERS. 2) Click on ANPOP2-v1.EXE (3) ANPOP will prompt you for the following entries. [ NAME OF FORECAST & OR NUM. & Date ? ] You can use any name and / or number you choose but keep it short, preferably 1-3 words and a number or a date, or 1-4 words. This is to conserve computer DO NOT INCLUDE A COMMA OR ANY OTHER SPECIAL CHARACTERS IN ANY RESPONSE. We suggest you use a number for the run, 1-3 words and the date to remember when each run is made. For example:- Enter ANPOP FORECAST #1 on 8/9/2013 [KIND OF ANIMAL & Breed.] Enter HOLSTEIN DAIRY CATTLE (4) Enter a value for each parameter as prompted. It is best at this stage to enter the median (middle) value within the range for each variable. The range of response is given in brackets with the prompt for each entry and the question will be repeated if your entry is unacceptable. Parameters with a range of 0 to 1 such as RR, MTR, FSR and MSR should be decimal fractions. Some like PL, RL, LI, OFP and OMP are to be whole numbers. The other variables can be whole numbers and fractions. Make your entries small, say 1 to 10 so that the results will not be too big and confusing. (5) Whenever you are asked to make a decision to get more results, you should answer Y. (6) Make sure you switch on your printer if you want to print-out the results. We hope that this trial run will make you better able to follow the detailed explanations given in the next chapters. But if you feel that it is necessary to get more practice now, try out ANPOP again before moving to the next chapter. (**Refer to the file with the Sample Forecast for more details.) - 1 -